The market was subdued this week amidst a raft of poor quarterly earnings releases. Disappointment from Merrill Lynch due to higher than expected subprime related losses and worse than expected numbers from bellwether Caterpillar left investors wary of just how weak earnings could be for the final quarter.
The root of the earnings disappointment remains the slumping housing sector. And although new home sales may have risen nearly 5 percent this month, after adjusting for seasonal effects, this was still below the market's expectations.
Intensified geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, together with an unexpectedly strong fall in the level of crude oil inventories has driven the oil price firmly above $90 per barrel this week. Our $100 per barrel target now looks imminent as we anticipate further gains, given the demand and supply dynamics of the sector.
Also driving the oil price is the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar, which we expect will continue given the Fed's monetary loosening bias. This of course also supports a higher gold price - another of our long-term bull themes.
On to the report….
This week we review Conoco Phillips' third quarter result. Following the company's exit from Venezuela and a thinning refiner margin, earnings and production slipped from the same period last year. Even so, we continue to see long-term value in the oil heavyweight.
On 17 October, the Indian stockmarket regulator proposed restrictions on unregistered foreign investors. The move sparked some considerable volatility in the stock market and this week we review the case for investing in India, through the Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund and The India Fund.
In our last review of Meridian Gold, we were very upbeat for the emerging gold and silver producers prospects. A rising unhedged production profile and exciting exploration prospects were in our view an ideal combination in light of robust precious metal prices. However, Yamana Gold's takeover offer presents the opportunity to take profits.
Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp is a recovery story in more ways than one. Formerly state owned, it is Japan's biggest Telco with more than 60 million fixed line customers and 50 million mobile subscribers. The group therefore offers exposure to both a resurgent sector in a recovering economy and equity market.
Last week, Rio Tinto announced a solid September quarter production report. Once again the focus was on the group's two key commodity earners, iron ore and copper, which currently generate 75 percent of revenue. Going forward, the acquisition of Alcan will help diversify earnings away from the current reliance on these two commodities.
We hope you enjoy this week's report….