FAT-USA-08902 Nov 07

Oil prices moved firmly above US$90 per barrel this week, hitting a record $96.24 per barrel. While geo-political tensions and a Fed rate cut have driven the recent rally, we maintain our view that further increases are sustainable over the longer term. This week we consider the outlook for oil and the factors determining it.

We took profits on Fording Canadian Coal (FDG) in FAT86 with a sell half recommendation. We reasoned that the company was looking stretched on a fundamental basis, however the charting outlook remained sound and provided scope for further share price gains.

Gold rose briefly above $800 an ounce in Asian trading on Thursday following Ben Bernanke's decision to cut official interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50 percent. Put more accurately, the dollar fell against gold as investors bailed out of the greenback and purchased real assets.

As we have discussed in the past, our investment philosophy focuses on opportunities that offer long-term value that have fallen out of favor. And the telecommunications sector is just such an example.

Shares of pharmaceutical giant Merck (MRK) enjoyed an uplift recently as a general re-pricing of risk buoyed defensive sectors such as healthcare and the success of the company's ongoing restructuring program bolstered earnings.

Since our last review (FAT77), the stock price of the world's largest mobile phone maker, Nokia (NOK), has continued to post strong gains. Most recently, investor enthusiasm for the company received a boost following an outstanding third quarter result that exceeded market expectations.