Well, it seems the Greenspan Put has become the Bernanke Put.
As the Federal Reserve cut official interest rates by another 25 basis points this week, the incumbent Fed Chairman has effectively assumed his predecessor's reputation by rescuing the economy when required.
And despite the fact that the Fed has played down any further rate cuts in the near term, we believe Bernanke will have his hands tied when faced with the prospects of a recession. Consumer confidence has begun to wane and, accounting for more than two thirds of GDP, this will surely weigh heavily on the Fed Chairman when making his next interest rate decision.
The housing sector, the bane and main cause of the present economic woes, is still in the doldrums and subprime mortgage related asset write-downs have taken Wall Street by surprise. Casualties have been taken, but we believe more damage is to come in the current credit turmoil.
So, as interest rates continue to decline, it follows that the value of the dollar will head further south. And as we have seen this week, real assets like oil and gold typically rally on the back of this.
Oil reached a new milestone this week, hitting an all time high and creeping towards our target of $100 per barrel. As our main story this week, we profile the outlook for black gold. Geopolitical issues, inventory levels and central bank actions may have driven the rally in the short term, but we believe the supply and demand fundamentals remain for oil prices to continue rising in the longer term.
And with the other 'real' asset in mind, we profile the Market Vector Gold Miners ETF, which we believe is a solid and low risk way to gain a diversified exposure to gold companies leveraged to a rising gold price.
Next, we review the iShares SP Global Telecommunications Sector Index Fund, which is well suited to investors looking for a diversified exposure to the Telecoms sector as a whole. We believe the sector, having lost favour for several years following the burst of the tech bubble, is now gaining favour again.
Staying with the telecoms sector, we review mobile phone maker Nokia after a solid set of results. It appears the Finnish giant continues to go from strength to strength and, currently commanding nearly 40 percent of the mobile phone market, seems to have its leadership position nicely secured.
Moving to the pharmaceutical sector, which is one we have been positive on for a while, we review healthcare giant Merck following its stellar third quarter result. However, uncertainty surrounding the full extent of legal fees and damages remains a sticking point.
And finally, a set of disappointing results for Fording Canadian Coal has led to a sharp decline in the stock. Following from our sell half recommendation a few weeks ago, the weakening technical outlook leads us to recommend selling the remaining exposure.
We hope you enjoy this week's report….