FAT-USA-22913 Aug 10

As the US economy struggles to get back on its feet, the Chinese economy is hurtling along at breakneck speed. The contrast between the established and new economies is fascinating as one digs into its tool kit to repair a flat tyre while the other is hoping red hot brake pads don’t give out.

Randgold reported a 52% increase in profit for 1Q10 over the previous quarter and an increase of 92% on a year ago. Profit for 1H10 was up 88% on a year ago. Investors were unimpressed and the stock continued its downtrend. Positive news that the commissioning of the Tongon mine in Côte d’Ivoire was ahead of schedule was offset by a downward revision for production from the Loulo mine because of power outages. Loss of production from Loulo will be partially compensated by production from Tongon.

Since we last reviewed Red Back mining much has changed on the corporate front. The group raised CAD$600m in a private placement from Kinross mining and is now set to merge with the larger gold miner. The merger puts Red Back’s high growth African projects together with Kinross gold’s more mature North and South American assets. With the combined group having the financial power to grow output we rate Red Back Mining a hold.

Our decision to take some healthy profits off the table by selling half of Abercrombie in late march this year (FAT209) was in hindsight a very good move indeed. The fear of a double dip US recession and a return to GFC conditions that weighed down the market through the second quarter also took its toll on Abercrombie.

Of all the Dow stocks, General Electric’s results are among the most influential in terms of their impact on investor sentiment. The company’s operations span such a diverse range of industries that its performance serves as a proxy for the US economy as a whole. Although it is not a view shared by us, there is still a groundswell of opinion that considers a double-dip US recession as the most likely near term outcome.